Reversal of Fortune

It wasn't supposed to turn out like this.

When this election cycle began over a year ago, the left was gleeful over the perceived prospects of their side. The Republicans were in disarray, damaged by an extremely unpopular president and an uninspiring field of candidates. The party's far right (the same wing which had been essential to Bush's two electoral victories) bemoaned the Republican lineup as being too moderate (McCain) too liberal (Guliani) too lazy (Thompson) or too Mormon (Romney.) The only one they really liked was Huckabee, but he was met with a lack of enthusiasm by everyone in the party besides the right wing. The writing on the wall was clear: the GOP was going to split in two, with the evangelicals and social conservatives staying home on election day. The Dems would have their nominee elected by Super Tuesday, and he or she would coast to an easy victory in November while the right self-destructed.

What a difference a primary makes.

Somehow, the Democrats have managed to turn these circumstances on their head. Gone is the cocky swagger many liberals sported during the early days of this campaign. In its place is a new and growing anxiety, a fear that the Dems may have doomed themselves. Now, they are the party which has been split down the center, divided between Obama and Clinton supporters. And meanwhile, John McCain coasts along, staying out of the crossfire and largely away from the ire of the media. While both Obama and Clinton continue to take damage in the polls, he remains relatively unscathed.

Even worse for the Dems is the news that the bickering might damage November turnout. 16% of Clinton supporters, and an equal number of Obama voters, say they will not vote for the other candidate if he/she wins the nomination. This figure is probably inflated a bit, as this is an emotional time for the Democrats, so it's quite likely that a number of those polled will change their minds between now and then. But it's a worrisome sign of a growing split within the party, which can only get worse as the primary drags on.

Yesterday I reported on the cryptic claim by Harry Reid that "things are being done" to bring this contest to a close. Today another big-name Dem, Senator Chris Dodd, said in an interview that it's time to end the race. In fairness, Dodd is an Obama superdelegate, and is going by the notion that Obama has already won thanks to near-insurmountable delegate and popular vote numbers. But nonetheless, his comments strike an all-too-familiar nerve with members of his party. And he's not alone.

Dodd and Reid are joined by a growing number of prominent party members who are afraid that if something isn't done, and fast, the Democrats may end up blowing the biggest chance they've had in decades.